Gordon Ramsay's show, Kitchen Nightmares, has brought hope to the greasy spoons and dirty dive restaurants across America (but mostly New York) for two seasons now. Ramsay made his name first as a soccer player, then gourmet restaurant owner, and now as a TV host to a variety of competitive cooking shows, most notably Hell's Kitchen. He's been named the #1 most successful restauranteur in the world thanks to his kitchen acumen, high standards and vitriolic temper.
For Fox's show Kitchen Nightmares, Gordon Ramsay visits restaurants which are financially floundering and attempts to turn them around. This may mean producing an entire new menu, renovating the décor, or installing state-of-the-art kitchen appliances. In spite of these efforts, many still go belly-up after Ramsay leaves.
Before the show starts, most Kitchen Nightmare restaurants are under a mountain of debt. The stubborn owner of Sabatiello's was over a million in the hole before Gordon Ramsay showed up. Facing such a dismal business scenario, even expert advice can only go so far. Are heavily indebted restaurants doomed to bankruptcy, or is Gordon Ramsay not the miracle worker he's sold as?
With some simple econometrics, we can take a stab at answering that question. Data was collected on the amount of debt, proportion of male owners, and whether each restaurant was still open. After watching the twenty-one episodes from Season 1 (so I like reality TV, sue me) and running it through a regression program, here are the results:
* Of the restaurants shown in Season 1 of Kitchen Nightmares, 28.5% are still in business. The other 71.5% have been either sold or foreclosed on. For each additional $10,000 in debt before Ramsay arrives, the restaurant's chance of staying open decreases by 1% (holding constant whether the management is male or female). This makes intuitive sense -- as a business' debt load increases, it becomes increasingly difficult to turn a profit while making interest payments. Many owners on Kitchen Nightmares have taken second home mortgages, maxed their credit cards, and pressured friends or relatives into loaning them money. As these burdens grow, bankruptcy or foreclosure becomes more likely.
* Restaurants with more male owners have an increased chance of staying open. Comparing two restaurants with the same amount of debt, one owned by a husband and wife and one owned by two men, the second establishment would have a 26.6% better chance of staying open (sorry ladies, it's just what the numbers say). This result is somewhat slanted because there was only one exclusively female-owned business featured in Season 1 of Kitchen Nightmares, and it went under. Most of the other women on the show co-owned the business with their husbands. The advantage this model displays for men is almost certainly the result of quirky data in a small sample set, not any objective difference between men and women as restaurant owners.
* Number of years in business was statistically irrelevant to a restaurant's chance of staying open. Some places had been floundering for up to eight years; none on the show had made it past ten years under their current management. Even owners who had been stuck in a rut managed to turn it around after Ramsay's visit. For example, the Secret Garden had run at a loss for seven years, accumulating $310,000 in debt, but it still remains open and is much more successful now. I think this is the best evidence for Gordon Ramsay's influence; his confrontational approach helps some owners change bad habits and bring their restaurant back to profitability.
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